30 Mar 2015
US NFP expected at 270k, upside risks to hourly earnings forecast – BAML
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Strategists at BofA-Merrill Lynch, share their forecast for US NFP and Wages, anticipating March job growth of 270k, and average hourly earnings at 2.0%, with risks tilted for a higher number for the latter.
Key Quotes
“The recent employment reports have been exceptionally strong with job growth averaging 293,000 a month for the past six months.”
“Although we expect a slight moderation in March with job growth of 270,000, this would still be a healthy number. We will also be closely looking at the trend in retail hiring as an indicator of the beginning of the spring shopping season. Overall, this will leave private payroll growth of 260,000 and public of 10,000.”
“The focus will be on wages. We look for a 0.2% gain, an improvement from the 0.12% increase in February. This would leave the yoy rate at 2.0%. We think the risk, however, is that average hourly earnings surprises on the upside vs forecast.”
Key Quotes
“The recent employment reports have been exceptionally strong with job growth averaging 293,000 a month for the past six months.”
“Although we expect a slight moderation in March with job growth of 270,000, this would still be a healthy number. We will also be closely looking at the trend in retail hiring as an indicator of the beginning of the spring shopping season. Overall, this will leave private payroll growth of 260,000 and public of 10,000.”
“The focus will be on wages. We look for a 0.2% gain, an improvement from the 0.12% increase in February. This would leave the yoy rate at 2.0%. We think the risk, however, is that average hourly earnings surprises on the upside vs forecast.”